Final Prediction for November 6, 2012 Election

My final prediction for the office of president of the United States is Mitt Romney. I believe he will win the Electoral College with 315 votes to Obama's 223 votes. I also believe Romney will win the popular vote by 4-5%. There is room in my prediction for a surprise state like Minnesota.

Republicans will pick up 5-7 seats in the House and take back the Senate with at least 51 seats. The governor's mansions will switch from Democratic to Republican in 5-6 states with McRory in North Carolina being one that will switch in a big way. Real Clear Politics has him up in the polls by 15.3 points.

It comes down to turnout in several key states. The top of the list is Ohio. While there are certainly some areas for concern it is encouraging that Mitt Romney has been attracting crowds of 30,000 or more people while Obama has had crowds of 1,500 - 4,000. That's still a significant number of people but clearly far fewer people are interested in his election this time. Part of that is the growing disatisfaction with how bad the economy is after 4 years of Obama's policies. The unemployment rate is higher than when he took office, gas prices have more than doubled, food prices are higher, the housing market has continued to be stagnant, 23 million Americans are out of work and many millions are underemployed. His policies have been a total disaster. He had promised so much and delivered so little.

People are losing confidence in our president because of his inability to tell the truth about the embassy in Benghazi, Libya. So much can be said about this but I'll save that later as this will be a huge issue after the election. The information that Hillary Clinton has will be devastating.

Another factor that has hurt the president is his constant refusal to reach across the aisle. While presidents like Ronald Reagan worked with Democrats and accomplished much, this president has been either unwilling or incapable. I think a little of both. One thing that is reassuring is that Mitt Romney worked in a state that had 85% Democrats in the legislature and yet he accomplished so much. He has promised that he will extend a hand across the aisle and work with all the people. He has also pledged that he and Paul Ryan will not spend any time blaming the previous administration.

Along those lines, many people lost a great deal of respect for the president in the first debate when he came off as petty, weak and appeared to be half asleep much of the time. Mitt Romney came across as presidential - in charge of the facts, focusing on big things, and talking in a respectful manner to the president with a passion that has excited millions. His win in that debate was so enormous that even the liberal media had to proclaim, "It just wasn't Obama's night." Although they went on to two more debates, the president never recovered from that and was arguably worse in the last debate.

Mitt Romney offers so much for this country. He believes in smaller, more limited government. That means getting the burden of taxes off the American people and encouraging businesses to invest in our economy. He believes in religious freedom and freedom in general. He will defend our gun rights. He is solidly Pro-Life and has been endorsed by nearly every major Pro-Life organization and leader. He believes in the sanctity of marriage (one man, one woman). He has even been endorsed by Billy Graham for these views. That in itself is remarkable because Billy Graham has never endorsed anyone before.

Back to the Electoral Map. I moved Nevada to Obama's column after it became apparent that this just isn't going to change. The president has spent an inordinate amount of time campaigning there and seems determined to carry this state at all costs. His persistence has paid off but his lack of attention to more critical states will result in his losing a second term.

I had dropped New Mexico about a month ago as one that seems out of reach for Mitt Romney.

How about Pennsylvania? Will Mitt really win there? I believe he will. Here are my reasons: incredibly high enthusiasm which is seen in huge rallies, winning in the early voting, and a great ground game that will come in handy on election day. It is crucial to get out the vote to win this and it's not only possible but likely. I like what Hugh Hewitt said, "If Pennsylvania goes for Romney by 8:00 PM - it's over!"

I am also more confident of a Wisconsin win for Romney at this point.

The bottom line is that even if Mitt Romney doesn't win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he still wins the presidency. He could even lose Colorado; though he won't. If he fails to carry Ohio, which is increasingly unlikely, he will need Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

Mitt Romney is set to be the 45th president of the United States. I am so confident that on November 1st we spent $10.30 to send a Certified letter with Restricted Delivery and Return Receipt to President Mitt Romney to be delivered on January 20, 2013. :-)

In Defense of President George W. Bush

Actually president Bush was an excellent president who, in spite of the worst attack on American soil and other challenges, rose to the challenge.

He had historically low unemployment, booming housing market, lower deficits than most presidents and 1/3 of the current president, and many other great economic indicators.

The real problem began when the House and Senate went to the Democrats in 2006. They started in with all kinds of policies that have harmed this nation. I admit that Bush should have vetoed more but I am proud of him for refusing to sign their final budget. It was that budget that Obama signed into law in 2009 and since then unemployment has only gotten worse, the average pay has gone down, health insurance has skyrocketed under Obamacare, the housing market is a disaster, gas prices have more than doubled, food prices have increased drastically and every economic indicator shows that it will be a long time before we get out of this mess.

So let's stop with the blame Bush bit because it is boring, bizarre and beneath the dignity of any sane person.

Vote!

Please vote! It's amazing that Pennsylvania and Michigan are now within Romney's grasp. Even here in ultra-liberal Oregon it's looking very close. There's been a huge drop in Obama's numbers here and if everyone would vote then maybe we can flip Oregon. At the very least let's get those numbers up in the popular vote and don't waste your vote on a candidate who has zero chance of winning or making any difference.

America is Giving Obama his Pink Slip!

Mitt Romney is going to win this election in a landslide. I conservatively have him with an Electoral College win of 321 and Obama with 217. Romney will get 4-5% of the popular vote.

Romney has been successful at everything he's done. He and his investment group helped create or save Staples, Domino's, Sealy, Brookstone, Weather Channel, Burger King, Warner Music Group, Home Depot and more. This has resulted in tens of thousands of new jobs here in America, far more than president Obama has created; net total of around 114,000 with true unemployment at 14.7%.

Romney saved the Winter Olympics and worked there for three years at no pay. He would not accept any pay as governor of Mass. There is much more that can be said.

Obama has been a disaster for this country and that's why we will be giving him a pink slip.

Republicans and War!

One of the things I hear often from Democrats and/or Liberals in general is that Republicans are war mongers. Is that true? Do Republicans really want to go to war? Are we just hoping we can get Mitt Romney in office so we can go to war with Iran?

Republicans despise war and believe that the best way to prevent it is through strength. Ronald Reagan proved how well that works by ending the Cold War without firing a single shot. To be fair it was a combination of Reagan working with Margaret Thatcher and the influence of Pope John Paul II that brought about this historic event. One of the major results of this was the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Today many countries from the former Soviet Union are friends with America and have been a positive influence in the world.

And let's remember this important fact: It was Democrats who got us into WWI, WWII, Korea and Vietnam.

George Bush was most famous for the War on Terror which included two fronts: Iraq and Afghanistan. Notable Democrats who voted to go to war include: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Kerry, John Edwards and even Diane Feinstein. They were right to do so but this bit about Republicans being war mongers is a pathetic argument.

WE WANT PEACE!

Did Candy Throw the President a Lifeline?

The evidence is overwhelming that Candy threw a lifeline to the president. She clearly said that the president was correct that he called the Benghazi attacks an act of terror in the Rose Garden on the next day. First of all he did NOT say that.

Second he continued telling fundraisers, news agencies and even the UN that they didn't know all the details but it was largely believed to be a spontaneous event as a result of some stupid YouTube video. Oh yeah and don't forget the video to the Arab world with Hillary apologizing for the video and repeated apologies from the president.

Finally, it is NEVER the place of the moderator to inject themselves into the debate and make ANY corrections of ANY kind. They are to facilitate the discussion. I have never seen such a horrible job for a debate at this level. If the two candidates want to spend the entire night lying then that is fine with me. The debate is between them and not the moderator. If it was her job then why didn't she correct Obama on all the times he was wrong and/or lied about Romney's positions.

The other bizarre thing is Michelle Obama breaking the rules of the debate and leading the audience in applause twice for this particular moment we are discussing.

Twitter: @vidmaster7

Electoral College Prediction

My prediction for the Electoral College at this point is Romney 321, Obama 217. Romney will also win the popular vote by 4-5%.

Further analysis to come...

Presidential Debate - Round 2

President Obama did better this time but I give the edge to governor Romney. He had a command of the facts, explained his plan in as much detail as can be expected in a debate, was compassionate and really connected with the audience. Obama came across as confident and scored some points connecting with the audience, though not as many as Romney, but he just couldn't stand on the failed policies of the last four years.

Mitt Romney got the first question and other than the final question I believe it was the strongest. Jeremy Epstein asked the following question: "Mr. President, Governor Romney, as a 20-year-old college student, all I hear from professors, neighbors and others is that when I graduate, I will have little chance to get employment. What can you say to reassure me, but more importantly my parents, that I will be able to sufficiently support myself after I graduate?"

Governor Romney responded with compassion and shared a similar situation that showed he understands the problem.

Candy Crowley from CNN was the moderator. Her bias was not apparent at first but it didn't take long for it to show up. She continuously interrupted Romney and helped Obama out several times. The biggest was when Obama claimed that he called the Benghazi attacks in Libya and "act of terror" the next day in the Rose Garden. Mitt Romney said that was not true. Candy interjected, "He did call it an act of terror." Here's a piece of the transcript from the Fox News web site:

ROMNEY: I want to make sure we get that for the record because it took the president 14 days before he called the attack in Benghazi an act of terror.

OBAMA: Get the transcript.

CROWLEY: It -- it -- it -- he did in fact, sir. So let me -- let me call it an act of terror...

OBAMA: Can you say that a little louder, Candy?

CROWLEY: He -- he did call it an act of terror. After the debate CNN's Anderson Cooper said that Candy and Obama were wrong. Candy has since admitted that she was wrong about that. Media bias will not stop the fact that Mitt Romney will be our next president. He will do such a great job that he will win reelection in a landslide similar to Reagan in 1984.

One line that I thought was funny was when Obama said, "When I was president." Oh Mr. President how we hope and pray that your pledge to make this "a one-term proposition" will come true.

Make sure you get out and vote. This is the most historic election in my lifetime and could change the course of America forever.

Romney Reaches 1,144 Delegates

It was all but certain that Mitt Romney would acquire enough delegates to reach this goal. Today with his huge win in Texas he now has 1,174 delegates - 30 more than needed to clinch the nomination. He still needs to go through the formality at the convention in August.

There are still 608 delegates available but even if the next closest contender, Rick Santorum with 253, were to win them all, it wouldn't be enough.

Next on the list is Newt Gingrich with a respectable 131 delegates followed by Ron Paul with only 119.

This has been a great race with some high spots and some low moments. Now that we know who our nominee is, it's time to get behind him and unseat the most liberal president to ever fill the Whitehouse.

One final thought, congratulations to president Obama who just played his 100th game of Golf since becoming president.

How to talk about Abortion

Over the years I have read many blogs and posts on Facebook and other social media where the writers simply do not get it.
I agree that abortion is murder and support every Pro-Life cause and candidate I can. However, saying "Abortion is murder" other than when talking with other Pro-Lifers alienates people. Young girls and women struggling with this decision are much less likely to listen to us when we talk like that. We need to give them the facts, stand with them, and love them unconditionally.

The other thing that's a real problem is when people insist on posting grusome photos of abortions on their Facebook status. One person is a well-known person who even ran for mayor (and lost) of the City where I work. She just didn't get it. I suggested posting a link to the photos with a warning so people will know what to expect. She views it as a public service to "force" people to see these photos. Well guess what? It doesn't stop people from getting abortions. What it does do is to turn people off to Pro-Lifers. I made my opinion known by dumping her as a friend. Sure I'll be nice to her when I see her but only as long as she doesn't pull out a photo of an aborted baby and shove it in my face.

Remember that these are people we are talking about. These girls and women are facing tough decisions and the last thing they need is condemnation. They need our support, our encouraging words and our love to help them make the right decision and to be there for them when they make the wrong decision.

House Votes Unanimously Against Obama's Budget

In a rare bi-partisan vote that resulted in every single member of the House voting against a bill, Obama's budget was struck down by a vote of 414-0.

This is epic! How often do we get the two sides of the aisle to agree on anything? Here we have an example of even the most liberal person voting against the president's budget. That must be a pathetic document to behold.

Remember the Senate voted unanimously against the president's budget at one point.

This just proves how out of touch this president really is and just how inadequate he is for the job.

Is Romney Conservative Enough?

It's interesting that Romney was seen as the Conservative alternative to McCain four years ago. He not only has not changed his positions since then but he has become more Conservative. He's wrong on some issues but so are all of them with Paul being the worst. I like Santorum but there is almost no electoral roadmap that shows him being able to beat Obama. Not only can Romney do that with his organization and yes, his financial advantage, but he will also make a great leader. Was he my first choice? Are you kidding? However, he is clearly the best choice at this point.

Newt Gingrich's Dirty Trick!

Newt Gingrich is playing the sore loser. First he didn't even call Romney to congratulate him. It turns out that the same was true in Iowa and New Hampshire. However Gov. Romney had the grace to call speaker Gingrich and congratulate him when he won South Carolina. This is virtually unheard of in presidential politics. No matter how bitter a primary or general election the loser calls the winner and offers congratulations.

Second he's trying to pull the dirty trick of challenging Florida's winner-take-all delegates. Here is the memo he uses to justify it: http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2012/02/01/republican-national-committee-memo-on-florida-delegates/

The thing that gets me is he ignores the fact that it lays out a punishment if the rules are not followed. Florida already received the punishment by losing half of the delegates.

Florida Republican Primary Predictions

This was what I wrote on Facebook on 1/26 - "My prediction - Romney wins Florida with 38-39%, Gingrich 34-35%, Santorum 11-13% and Paul 10-11%. With 50 delegates this will give an air of inevitability for Romney and he will be the nominee. There is no electoral model that would ever have Paul winning against any candidate - Republican or Democrat. I know what his plan is but it's increasingly clear that the American people do not want a fight at the convention. There are good things about Dr. Paul but his stand on foreign policy would be disastrous for the United States and her allies. I also believe that as long as Romney doesn't make any serious mistakes and picks a good VP - he will be the next president of the United States. My bet is on Romney-Rubio."

Newt Wins! Congratulations Mr. Speaker.

Congratulations Mr. Speaker. Newt Gingrich is currently taking South Carolina "by a comfortable margin" as I had predicted.
What's suprising is how much Santorum appears to be winning over Ron Paul. What would be great is if Paul dropped out and we could hear from the other candidates only since Paul has absolutely zero chance of getting the nomination. I would really rather spend my time listening to the ones who can actually win.

As far as Gingrich's moral failings, I believe in the power of repentance and forgiveness. The people who know him said that this is real. He's not my first choice - Santorum was but he's about done.
The two remaining viable candidates - Romney and Gingrich - will be a vast improvement over what we have now. Our country is in the process of being destroyed by this president. Please don't hear me say that he is doing it intentionally because I don't believe that for a second. Obama is a true-believer in liberalism and totally incompetent at the same time!

South Carolina - January 21, 2012

It's increasingly looking like Newt Gingrich will be the winner in South Carolina today and by a comfortable margin. I don't believe he will be the nominee as I still think that's Mitt Romney's to lose. Newt simply does not have the money or the organization that Romney has. At this point Romney is still favored to win Florida and pick up a whopping 50 delegates because Florida is still a winner-take-all state.

I dislike the changes in recent years to make the states proportional. They argue that it means that the nomination won't be wrapped up in the first month of the campaign. I believe that if the person wins the state they should actually "win" the state and get everything.

My personal favorite is Rick Santorum but I don't think his campaign is going anywhere.

As far as Newt Gingrich's moral failings, I have no problem forgiving him. I believe him and do think he is a changed man. I would vote for him if he is the nominee (which I doubt he will be though he will win today). If he somehow pulls it out, it will be very difficult for him to win over Obama.

Ron Paul will never be the nominee so there's no point in even talking about him anymore. His foreign policy is disastrous and he is furthest from the constitution on this issue.

The other three candidates are all excellent and all three have human flaws but that doesn't concern me. The ONLY thing that concerns me at this point is getting the disastrous Obama out of office.

Mitt Romney Makes History!

Today Mitt Romney made history by being the first Republican non-incumbent candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. That is true for both Republicans and Democrats so this is an amazing victory. He won by double-digits.

I believe that Mitt Romney will be the nominee and will be the next president of the United States. Listen to his victory speech and you will hear someone who inspires like president Reagan.

There seems to be a significant number of people supporting Ron Paul. Let me say that Ron Paul has ZERO chance of winning anything. Mark my words. He's 77 years old and would be older than Ronald Reagan was when he left office. He has run a bazillion times before and lost with dismal numbers - less than 1%. Many people who voted for him in the open primary would never vote for him in the General Election. Their goal is to get the most liberal candidate elected and the one most likely to lose to Obama. Second in most likely to lose to Obama would be Huntsman.

One thing is clear is that Rick Perry is done! He needs to get out of the race immediately. He will likely stay in through South Carolina but when he finishes third or lower there he will drop out.

Some people thing that Romney is not Conservative. I disagree! He may not be as Conservative as I or others would like but I am in agreement with at least 90% of what he stands for. Remember Reagan was pro-choice and a Democrat and he changed. People can change! I wanted Santorum but frankly there's no way he can win at this point.

So now my efforts turn to getting Mitt Romney elected as president and replacing one of the two worst presidents in my life.

Ron Paul - Scarier than Barack Obama

The one person who scares me more than president Obama is Ron Paul. Here are some of the comments he has made.

At the debate on May 5th, 2011 Wallace asked: “Are you suggesting that heroin and prostitution are an exercise of liberty?” After tripping up a little, Rep. Paul replied “yes,” then found himself arguing in favor of legalizing heroin, asking, “if we legalize heroin tomorrow, is everyone going to use heroin? How many people here would use heroin if it were legal?”

‎"If you have ever been robbed by a black teen-aged male, you know how unbelievably fleet-footed they can be." - Ron Paul, 1992

"Given the inefficiencies of what D.C. laughingly calls the `criminal justice system,' I think we can safely assume that 95 percent of the black males in that city are semi-criminal or entirely criminal." - Ron Paul, 1992

In a 2007 interview with John Stossel, Paul stated that he supported the right of gay couples to marry, so long as they didn't "impose" their relationship on anyone else, on the grounds of supporting voluntary associations.

Paul wrote of his opposition to the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Paul describes Israel as: “an aggressive, national socialist state.” Paul has described the original World Trade Center bombing as a “retaliation” and during the Republican debates in 2007 and 2011 blamed American foreign policy for Al-Qaeda’s attacks.


It's interesting that Ron Paul is running as the Republican nominee (which he will never get) and is using Reagan in his ads. Here's what he said about Reagan and his administration in 1987: "Knowing this administration’s record, I wasn’t surprised by its Libyan disinformation campaign, Israeli-Iranian arms-for-hostages swap, or illegal funding of the Contras. All this has contributed to my disenchantment with the Republican Party, and helped me make up my mind… I want to totally disassociate myself from the policies that have given us unprecedented deficits, massive monetary inflation, indiscriminate military spending, an irrational and unconstitutional foreign policy, zooming foreign aid, the exaltation of international banking, and the attack on our personal liberties and privacy… I conclude that one must look to other avenues if a successful effort is ever to be achieved in reversing America’s direction… I therefore resign my membership in the Republican Party and enclose my membership card."

The last time he ran for president (let's see is that four times now), he said: "The Republican 'party' NOW stands for the BIG LIE, it stands for CRIME and DEATH, for GENOCIDE and PERVERSION, for TAXATION and GRAFT, for the FED and FINANCIAL RAPE, for DOMESTIC SPYING and the PATRIOT ACT, ...it stands for the end of LIBERTY and of our CONSTITUTION. Above all, it now stands for Zionism and WAR."

I am extremely confident that he has absolutely zero chance of getting the nomination so I'm not worried. I love what Donald Trump said on "Hannity" on 12/5: "Ron Paul has zero chance, zero, of getting elected or getting the nomination. He will do OK in Iowa and after Iowa he will fade into oblivion."

  

Historical View of Defense Spending

If we listened to the Obama administration we would be led to believe that defense spending consumes a disproportionately high level of Federal spending. The fact is that we are spending far less now than we have in the past. Yet, president Obama is proposing that we cut at least another $400 billion dollars. That is in addition to the $500 billion in cuts that is set to kick in in 2013 unless Congress acts. Whenever America has had a weak or diminished military we are MORE prone to attacks. Whenever we've built up our military, such as what president Ronald Reagan did, we have been able to avert attacks. Remember the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended without a single shot being fired. The Berlin wall was demolished and freedom allowed to enter into that oppressive society. Let's not return to an era like we had under the one-term Jimmy Carter when Iran kidnapped 52 Americans and held them hostage for 444. That was a time when the Soviet Union frequently made its presence known in weaker nations because they knew that we wouldn't intervene. Let's keep our military strong!

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/01/08/chart-of-the-week-defense-spending-throughout-u-s-history/

Carter Likes Romney as Candidate

Let's see we have the second worst president and the last Republican nominee who lost the election both endorsing him. This is the reason I am hoping that Santorum wins. I know people say he doesn't have the money or the organization but look what happened when he finished only 8 votes behind Romney in Iowa. He got $1 million dollars the next day and another million in the next couple days. If he is our nominee we will pour out even more money and really get behind him because we MUST defeat Obama or our country is likely through as we know it.