Final Prediction for November 6, 2012 Election

My final prediction for the office of president of the United States is Mitt Romney. I believe he will win the Electoral College with 315 votes to Obama's 223 votes. I also believe Romney will win the popular vote by 4-5%. There is room in my prediction for a surprise state like Minnesota.

Republicans will pick up 5-7 seats in the House and take back the Senate with at least 51 seats. The governor's mansions will switch from Democratic to Republican in 5-6 states with McRory in North Carolina being one that will switch in a big way. Real Clear Politics has him up in the polls by 15.3 points.

It comes down to turnout in several key states. The top of the list is Ohio. While there are certainly some areas for concern it is encouraging that Mitt Romney has been attracting crowds of 30,000 or more people while Obama has had crowds of 1,500 - 4,000. That's still a significant number of people but clearly far fewer people are interested in his election this time. Part of that is the growing disatisfaction with how bad the economy is after 4 years of Obama's policies. The unemployment rate is higher than when he took office, gas prices have more than doubled, food prices are higher, the housing market has continued to be stagnant, 23 million Americans are out of work and many millions are underemployed. His policies have been a total disaster. He had promised so much and delivered so little.

People are losing confidence in our president because of his inability to tell the truth about the embassy in Benghazi, Libya. So much can be said about this but I'll save that later as this will be a huge issue after the election. The information that Hillary Clinton has will be devastating.

Another factor that has hurt the president is his constant refusal to reach across the aisle. While presidents like Ronald Reagan worked with Democrats and accomplished much, this president has been either unwilling or incapable. I think a little of both. One thing that is reassuring is that Mitt Romney worked in a state that had 85% Democrats in the legislature and yet he accomplished so much. He has promised that he will extend a hand across the aisle and work with all the people. He has also pledged that he and Paul Ryan will not spend any time blaming the previous administration.

Along those lines, many people lost a great deal of respect for the president in the first debate when he came off as petty, weak and appeared to be half asleep much of the time. Mitt Romney came across as presidential - in charge of the facts, focusing on big things, and talking in a respectful manner to the president with a passion that has excited millions. His win in that debate was so enormous that even the liberal media had to proclaim, "It just wasn't Obama's night." Although they went on to two more debates, the president never recovered from that and was arguably worse in the last debate.

Mitt Romney offers so much for this country. He believes in smaller, more limited government. That means getting the burden of taxes off the American people and encouraging businesses to invest in our economy. He believes in religious freedom and freedom in general. He will defend our gun rights. He is solidly Pro-Life and has been endorsed by nearly every major Pro-Life organization and leader. He believes in the sanctity of marriage (one man, one woman). He has even been endorsed by Billy Graham for these views. That in itself is remarkable because Billy Graham has never endorsed anyone before.

Back to the Electoral Map. I moved Nevada to Obama's column after it became apparent that this just isn't going to change. The president has spent an inordinate amount of time campaigning there and seems determined to carry this state at all costs. His persistence has paid off but his lack of attention to more critical states will result in his losing a second term.

I had dropped New Mexico about a month ago as one that seems out of reach for Mitt Romney.

How about Pennsylvania? Will Mitt really win there? I believe he will. Here are my reasons: incredibly high enthusiasm which is seen in huge rallies, winning in the early voting, and a great ground game that will come in handy on election day. It is crucial to get out the vote to win this and it's not only possible but likely. I like what Hugh Hewitt said, "If Pennsylvania goes for Romney by 8:00 PM - it's over!"

I am also more confident of a Wisconsin win for Romney at this point.

The bottom line is that even if Mitt Romney doesn't win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he still wins the presidency. He could even lose Colorado; though he won't. If he fails to carry Ohio, which is increasingly unlikely, he will need Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

Mitt Romney is set to be the 45th president of the United States. I am so confident that on November 1st we spent $10.30 to send a Certified letter with Restricted Delivery and Return Receipt to President Mitt Romney to be delivered on January 20, 2013. :-)